Is a Slight Risk a small risk?

No. Slight is the second of five categories and means scattered severe storms are possible. It is the category most often underestimated because of how mild the word sounds.

What is the highest severe weather risk category?

High Risk, category 5. It is issued rarely, sometimes only a few times a year, and indicates an expected severe weather outbreak.

Can severe weather happen outside a risk area?

Yes. A risk area describes where organized severe storms are most likely across a broad region. Storms occur outside outlook areas, which is why warnings matter more than outlooks.

What a Slight Risk actually means

Every morning the Storm Prediction Center draws the country into severe weather risk categories. The words sound casual, which is exactly why they get misread. A Slight Risk is not a small risk, and a Marginal Risk is not nothing.

The five categories, lowest to highest

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma issues a convective outlook for the whole country, updated through the day. It places areas into categories that describe how likely organized severe storms are, and how widespread they would be if they happen. These are the official names and numbers.

General Thunderstorms: Storms are expected, but they are not expected to reach severe limits. Ordinary summer afternoon weather in much of the country.
1. Marginal Risk: Isolated severe storms are possible. They would be limited in duration, coverage and intensity.
2. Slight Risk: Scattered severe storms are possible. This is the level most people underestimate, because the word slight does not sound like a day to change plans, and it often is.
3. Enhanced Risk: Numerous severe storms are possible, more persistent and more widespread.
4. Moderate Risk: Widespread severe weather is likely, often long-lived and intense. Moderate Risk days are uncommon and they are serious.
5. High Risk: A severe weather outbreak is expected. The Storm Prediction Center issues these rarely, sometimes only a few times a year, and they precede the worst days on record.

What the categories do not tell you

A risk category describes a broad area over a whole day. It is not a forecast that a storm will hit your street, and being outside a risk area is not a guarantee of a quiet afternoon. Severe weather happens outside outlooks.

The categories also say nothing about which hazard is expected. A Slight Risk driven by damaging wind is a different day from a Slight Risk driven by tornado potential. The Storm Prediction Center publishes separate probability maps for tornado, wind and hail, and those are where the specific threat lives.

What should change about your day

At Marginal and Slight, the useful response is awareness rather than action: know that storms are possible, keep a way to receive warnings, and think about whether anything you have planned would be hard to abandon quickly. Outdoor events, boats and long drives are the things that go wrong.

At Enhanced and above, treat the day as one where plans may need to change, and make sure you would actually hear a warning at night. At High Risk, follow your local National Weather Service office directly.

Common questions

Is a Slight Risk a small risk?: No. Slight is the second of five categories and means scattered severe storms are possible. It is the category most often underestimated because of how mild the word sounds.
What is the highest severe weather risk category?: High Risk, category 5. It is issued rarely, sometimes only a few times a year, and indicates an expected severe weather outbreak.
Can severe weather happen outside a risk area?: Yes. A risk area describes where organized severe storms are most likely across a broad region. Storms occur outside outlook areas, which is why warnings matter more than outlooks.

The radar page shades the Storm Prediction Center's current outlook on the map and names the category your location sits in.

See today's risk category for your location

Related guides

Categories and definitions on this page follow the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center. For the official text of any product in effect, see weather.gov.